“Hormuz closed, world in trouble: Oil prices may cross $200, inflation set to explode in India!”
If Hormuz opens by June 2026, the market may gradually normalize and Brent crude may again come around $80 per barrel. If the crisis continues until September 2026, the world could be heading towards a recession. In the worst case scenario, if Hormuz remains closed until the end of 2026, oil could reach 00 per barrel and global GDP could fall drastically.
The US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis have shaken the entire world economy. The global energy market is in turmoil and the biggest impact is being seen on oil and gas prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered the world's most important oil route, through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes. The disruption of this route has led to the biggest energy crisis of this century in front of the world.
Global energy research firm Wood Mackenzie warned in its report that if Hormuz remained closed for a long time, crude oil prices could reach 00 per barrel. According to the report, more than 1.1 crore barrels of oil per day and a huge amount of LNG supply have been affected.
The report outlines three possible scenarios:
If Hormuz opens by June 2026, the market may gradually normalize and Brent crude may again come around $80 per barrel.
If the crisis continues until September 2026, the world could be heading towards a recession.
In the worst case scenario, if Hormuz remains closed until the end of 2026, oil could reach 00 per barrel and global GDP could fall drastically.
International energy agencies and market experts believe that this crisis will not be limited to oil only. The prices of petrol, diesel, gas and electricity are increasing continuously. According to some reports, the price of diesel and jet fuel is expected to go up to $300 per barrel.
This situation is considered very serious for India as India imports about 80-85% of its crude oil and 90% of its gas requirement. In such a situation, the increase in oil prices directly:
Petrol, diesel to become costlier.
According to experts, the prices of petrol and diesel in India are likely to increase further if the crisis continues for a long time.
However, some analysts also say that if a deal is reached between the US and Iran and Hormuz reopens, the market could stabilise rapidly. But at present, there is fear and uncertainty in the global market.
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